Szeminár: Választási földrajz, kétharmadváltás (Szakadát István)

A Szociológia és Kommunikáció Tanszék őszi szeminársorozatának első előadását Szakadát István kollégánk tartja szerzői kollektívában a magyar választási földrajz alakulásáról írt friss tanulmánya alapján. A tanulmány címe Kétharmadváltás, a Társadalmi Riportban fog megjelenni.

Időpont: szeptember 22. kedd, 10:00. Helyszín: E704-es tárgyaló.

Angol nyelvű absztrakt

"Between 1990 and 2026, Hungary held ten parliamentary elections, six of which produced a two-thirds (constitutional) majority for the winning side. Fidesz-KDNP won such a supermajority four consecutive times (2010–2022) before losing by an equally decisive margin to the Tisza Party in 2026. This paper traces the settlement-level transformation of Fidesz’s electoral base across the sixteen-year rule of the “National System of Cooperation” (NER, 2010–2026) and interprets the 2026 revers a linlight of that trajectory. Drawing on Hungarian parliamentary and European Parliament election results (1990–2026) linked with settlement-level demographic, educational, income, and social-benefit data, we combine correlation, interaction-regression, and spatial cluster analyses (Kulldorff scan statistic, LISA) to track how Fidesz’s support base shifted across space and social groups. We show that Fidesz’s core support moved from the economically developed, better-educated western regions toward increasingly disadvantaged eastern and northern settlements, and that by the end of the NER period vote share correlated strongly and negatively with income and education, and positively with unemployment and social-benefit dependency. We argue that this drift was masked for most of the period by a “central force field”– a structural feature of the party system, not re-engineered anew each cycle – that kept the opposition divided into two mutually hostile blocs. The 2022 opposition coalition eliminated the far-right Jobbik as an independent pole, collapsing the central force field and opening the way for the binary, anti-incumbent logic that carried Tisza to power in 2026."